The 2015 UN Paris Agreement on climate change is still seen as a breakthrough. At the time, the world was looking at a temperature rise of 3.5°C by 2100. Such rapid-paced global warming would make life in big parts of the world unbearable: heatwaves and floods would cause failed harvests and an unprecedented flow of refugees, forecasts said. In Paris, word leaders agreed to limit global warming to ‘well below 2°C’, and ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’.

The Paris Agreement has brought about new climate policy in many countries. With the summit in Dubai in sight, it is estimated that global warming will reach between 2.5°C and 2.9°C in 2100, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced recently. “This shows that climate policy works, which is an important conclusion,” says Pieter Pauw, a TU/e researcher specializing in the funding of the climate transition. “But according to the IPCC, worldwide carbon emissions should be cut in half by 2030. So a lot more has to be done to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Which is a huge challenge, but not an impossible one. To meet it, everyone has to do all that lies in their power.”

The Conference of the Parties (COP) – the official name of the climate conference –  will last two weeks, from November 30 to December 12. It’s the 28^th climate conference, which is why it’s commonly referred to as ‘COP 28’. Pauw himself will also travel to Dubai. He’ll be there from December 3 to 7, functioning as a panelist at several side events. These are gatherings where experts share the latest experiences and insights with a larger audience.

Adaptation Gap Report 

Pauw will be presenting the recently published Adaptation Gap Report, which he co-authored. In this report, scientists take stock of what developing countries need to protect themselves from climate change. Pauw and his colleagues conclude that developing countries require ten to eighteen times more money than what’s currently being made available as international funding. “The bigger the climate change, the bigger the change that’s needed, the higher the costs of adapting,” says Pauw. It concerns things like protecting the coast from rising sea levels and improving sewer systems to dispose of water caused by torrential rains.

In the latest report, the ‘adaptation gap’ is fifty percent bigger than in the previous one. This decade alone, 387 billion dollar will be required for climate adaptation. At COP 26 in Glasgow, Western countries promised to pay 100 billion years into a fund each year for climate adaptation in developing countries. For the moment, however, this sum is nowhere in sight. What’s more, there’s a debate about which countries actually qualify as developing countries. Should China be contributing to the fund or receiving money from it? And a final issue is that Western countries want the climate fund to fall under the World Bank, which the developing countries object to.

Climate diplomacy

Pauw is not allowing himself to be discouraged by these developments. The heart-to-heart that the climate envoys of China and the United States had prior to the climate summit gives him hope. “The relationship between those two countries has obviously seen better days. Their collaboration in this matter is of great importance,” Pauw thinks. The researcher, with visits to more than ten climate summits under his belt, goes on to remind us that climate diplomacy between the US and China was also the decisive factor in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Official announcements have not been made, but international media are reporting that the US and China are supporting a plan to triple the use of sustainable energy by 2030. However, the major point of contention in Dubai is whether countries will reach agreements to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Even though solar and wind energy have found widespread popularity in recent decades, economic growth – particularly in Asia and Africa – means coal, oil and gas usage continues to increase. Europe’s carbon emissions have steadily gone down for years, notably thanks to the advent of green power and energy efficiency, but worldwide greenhouse gas emissions are still on the rise.

Technology and innovation

Pauw thinks technology plays a ‘key role’ in tackling the climate issue. “Technology has brought the world such things as energy-efficient devices, sustainable transport and green power.” TU/e plays an important part in the development of climate technology, says Pauw, especially when it comes to energy efficiency and sustainable transport. “TU/e also distinguishes itself through the close collaboration with business. Innovations make their way out of our labs onto the market via companies. TU/e excels in this respect.”

But more can and must be done, Pauw thinks: “Ideally one would like for students and staff to give more weight to climate in every decision. What course should I take? What should I write my master’s thesis on? In what direction should I go with my research?”

Alongside technology and innovation, a change of behavior is also crucial, the TU/e researcher asserts. “We’ll need more than innovation to get out of the climate crisis. Take aviation. Quieter and cleaner aircraft are being introduced all the time, but the rapid growth of the sector cancels out that progress. To make impact, we’ll have to start flying less as well.” Flying less doesn’t mean quit flying altogether, Pauw says. “It’s been four years since I travelled by plane, but now I’ll get on one again to go to Dubai.”

Climate funding

In spite of the aforementioned hope-instilling developments in the areas of diplomacy and technology, the required behavioral shift isn’t Pauw’s only concern: he’s also worried about the funding of climate policy. After all, the rising interest rate makes it more expensive to borrow money, and the high inflation means materials that are needed for the energy transition are becoming more costly. As a result, England and Denmark have already cancelled plans for new wind farms on sea. “That’s concerning,” Pauw agrees. “Governments need to continue to promote sustainability, for example by taxing carbon emissions more heavily, which will automatically make sustainable solutions cheaper than fossil ones.”