This meant that Dijkgraaf could occasionally be seen biting his tongue, unable to speak his mind. Migration seemed to be a difficult issue for him to navigate. “You’re right”, he admits. “The broader public discussion on migration also affects education, for instance when it comes to international students, refugees or people who have been displaced because of the war in Ukraine. The scale may be smaller, but that doesn’t make things any less complicated. It’s always a kind of balancing act.”

Universities are currently under pressure due to high enrolments, which is contributing to housing shortages. But at the same time, Dijkgraaf stresses, international students offer great added value. “Plus, with some students, there are humanitarian factors to consider: you also want the Netherlands to be a safe haven for people who need help.”

Foresight Study

But today, the main focus is on the Foresight Study minister Dijkgraaf is sending to the House of Representatives. What role will the document play moving forward? Things are not working out the way he had hoped, he acknowledges.

“This should have been the first stage of a rocket, propelled by ideas collected from the sector – we explicitly didn’t want them to be my ideas, or the ministry’s or the coalition’s. It was important to us to give everyone in the sector a chance to share their thoughts, which were then analysed by independent researchers to identify common threads. So this report doesn’t say: do this and that. The second stage of the rocket is the part where you start making choices.”

Now, that part will be out of his hands, he writes in a letter to the House of Representatives, which mainly summarises the topics that seem urgent to him, as well as the broad choices policymakers will be faced with. More detailed information on funding changes and other possible interventions will be shared later to help make discussions more concrete.

One in seven students

But universities, too, seem to want to restrict students’ freedom of choice. Recently, a former rector magnificus estimated that roughly 15 percent of research university students would fare better at a university of applied sciences. Universities are also calling for more stable funding, as this would allow them to admit fewer students.

That would mean selecting at the gate, but that’s another subject Dijkgraaf is hesitant to comment on. He says the main challenge is to help students discover where they belong. “You can also create more flexible learning pathways, to make it a bit easier for students to switch programs. Then, if someone’s not successful in one form of education, there’s a proper way for them to make that transition.”

You have to be careful when it comes to making big changes anyway, Dijkgraaf warns, because the current Dutch higher education system is easily accessible while also offering high quality and good job prospects. “Some people call it a ‘trilemma’, which suggests those three can’t go in hand in hand, but that isn’t the case at all. One of the great things about our education system is that the right secondary school diploma should, in principle, offer access to vocational colleges, universities of applied sciences and research universities.”

Fan

Which brings Dijkgraaf to one of his favourite topics, the ‘education fan’. According to the minister, vocational colleges, universities of applied sciences and research universities should be visualised side by side, like a fan. Too often, people believe that one is higher or lower than the other. Dijkgraaf continues to stress that we need to stop thinking like that.

Empty rhetoric, some might say – as long as doctors earn more than nurses, you can hardly blame parents who want their kids to get into VWO, the Dutch secondary school system’s pre-university track.

“Ultimately, the salaries aren’t the same”, Dijkgraaf says. “That’s true. But that’s the case among university graduates as well. A banker or dentist earns more than an entry-level teacher. So there are big differences. But there are also vocational programs that produce graduates who end up earning more than some people with a university diploma. It’s about students finding their place in the world and becoming the best version of themselves. So you don’t want them to feel like succeeding at that can somehow be seen as a failure.”

Changes at universities of applied sciences

While universities are struggling to accommodate the influx of new students, universities of applied sciences expect to see an enrolment slump. Wouldn’t it make sense to introduce a new kind of university to bridge the gap between the two and offer a more attractive proposition to VWO graduates?

“I’m not going to share my personal opinion”, Dijkgraaf replies, referring to his caretaker status, “but these kinds of variants are suggested in the Foresight Study.” At the same time, the report also points to the enormous diversity within higher education, he stresses. You could also develop these kinds of variants within the existing institutions, just as you could expand the secondary vocational education system to accommodate practical research.

The current cabinet is already laying the groundwork for this, says the Minister. “We have allocated a yearly budget of 100 million euros to practice-based research at universities of applied sciences. That’s an enormous amount when you consider that we practically started from zero.”

Elections

During the course of the conversation, Dijkgraaf repeatedly underlines what the cabinet has achieved and what is at stake in the elections. “This government has made huge investments in education and research. There’s really been a major course correction. We reinstated the basic student grant, which promotes equal opportunities in education, and our sector plans for science have allowed universities to create 1,200 permanent positions. There are also start-up and incentive grants that make it easier for young scientists to get a permanent contract and then access the resources they need to shape their own research.”

Will all that work be undone after the elections if the wrong parties get their way? “The way I see it, these are all little seedlings that we’ve planted, and that are beginning to sprout. These really are long-term investments. In the end, there will be major benefits for the Netherlands in terms of innovation – finding smarter and better ways to meet the big societal challenges. My largest concern is that we don’t give these plans the chance to come to fruition.”

Small, medium, large

The Foresight Study is supposed to be neutral, but it presents three options. Doesn’t that format make the middle option seem the most sensible? Dijkgraaf smiles. “It’s true that ministers are often presented with three possible variants by their staff: small, medium and large. And then you’re usually inclined to choose medium. Small and large are often just there as a formality.”

But that’s not the case with the Foresight Study, he believes. “People will make some choices and highlight certain aspects based on their political beliefs. But the big question is: how can we accommodate all the potential we have in the Netherlands? For the major challenges we face as a society, we’re totally dependent on people who are trained to address them. That’s why I often talk about the equality of all forms of education, from vocational schools to research universities – because we need everyone. But if you take all those challenges into consideration... yes, you do end up choosing the medium variant.”

Black magic

Long before Dijkgraaf became Minister of Education, he never thought he would end up going into politics. In fact, as president of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, he said he saw politics as a kind of black magic. In physics, if you press a button, he explained, you know exactly which light will come on. In politics, you press a button and a bell is going to ring somewhere, but you don’t know where or when. Have his views on politics changed?

“Sure. Things do work differently than they do in science, but once you’re inside that ‘black box’ of politics yourself, you get to see all the intricate circuitry. You need public support, you need to convince your fellow cabinet members, then come the House of Representatives and the Senate, and then sometimes the Council of State will get involved as well. So I do appreciate now why things often take a long time in politics. But there is a current running through that whole chain, and the light only comes on when all the circuits are connected.”

Should the opportunity arise, would he be open to a second term as minister? Dijkgraaf hesitates. “I really don’t know exactly what I want to do next. But I’ve taken various steps over the course of my career, and those were all different chapters in a book. My feeling now is that this role, in this cabinet, is one such chapter. So I’m first going to think about how I want to close this chapter, and then we’ll see what comes next. I’ve devoted my whole life to teaching and research, and I will continue to do so. I just don’t know what that’s going to look like yet.”

Minister of Education Robbert Dijkgraaf (D66) is not sure if he sees a future for himself in politics. “I’m first going to think about how I want to conclude this chapter, and then we’ll see what comes next. I really don’t know exactly what I want to do next,” Dijkgraaf replies to the question of whether he would be interested in another term as minister. Should the opportunity arise, that is, as D66 is currently down in the polls.

Dijkgraaf is a world-renowned theoretical physicist who became a household figure in the Netherlands when he gave a series of compelling lectures for the television program DWDD University. He previously served as president of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences and as director of the renowned Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, where Albert Einstein once worked.